Harper statistically tied with hypothetical LPC-NDP Coalition Government

Listen up!

Deep in the recesses of the poll released by EKOS today is the question: If you were forced to choose between a government led by Stephen Harper and a coalition government made up of Liberals and New Democrats and led by Michael Ignatieff, which would you prefer?

Harper Government: 38.8%

LPC-NDP Coalition Government: 38.6%

No Response: 22.6%

Support for a coalition government led by Ignatieff is strongest in Quebec. Respondents in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba strongly favour a Harper government (no surprise). However, support for a coalition government vs. another Harper minority is a statistical tie within the margin of error for respondents in BC, Ontario and the Maritimes. Of those who would prefer a Harper government, 40.3% had an education of a high school diploma or less compared to 34.4% who have a post-secondary education. A "three-times a charm" Harper government also garnered the most support from people aged 65+. Coalition supporters came largely from those who are university educated (50.7%) and found the most support from people aged 25 and younger. Perhaps It seems to me that there is certainly a generational aspect to this poll that ought to be explored further. Do these trends indicate that by the time I am between the ages of 45-64 coalition governments will be a staple of the Canadian political economy?

However, the circumstances by which said coalition government would form would definitely have an impact on the 22.6% who did not give a response (my theory: those who had no response wouldn't care as long as the process to determine the next PM and the parties that govern is transparent and legal).

So, does this open up the "merger" talk again? Maybe. But that being said, the question was not "who would you vote for between a CPC candidate and a hypothetical Liberal-Democrat candidate?" so we cannot really use this poll to support merger talk.

We can, however, also get a glimpse at what a single-transferable-vote electoral system would yield: more LPC and NDP candidates with fewer Conservatives and BQ MPs. Among Liberal voters 38.7% would vote NDP as their second choice; while 30.4% of Dippers would cast their second ballot for a Liberal candidate.

And for some comic relief: 51.1% of Conservatives do not have a second choice between the LPC, NDP, GPC, Bloc, nor any "other" party that could potentially be on the ballot.

To my surprise, the GPC did not pick up more second choice votes. The Greens' highest block of second-choice votes would come from New Democrat voters at 22.8%. Meanwhile, only 26.3 of Green voters would list the NDP as their second choice (which was well above the 15.3% the LPC received and 10.9% the CPC garnered). Green voters had the second highest "no second choice" of all committed voters at 36.5%.

And, believe it or not, 61.1% of undecided voters had no second choice.

Coalition governments, electoral reform and Iggy as PM... oh my! Lots to comb through in this week's EKOS poll. This will give me plenty to rant about for the next 7 days.