EKOS tells the tale: Am I still safe at Starbucks?

I'd like to begin this post with a hat-tip. I'd like to hat-tip Steve V of Far n Wide. I read his blog often, and always on days when a new poll comes out. Because I think Steve is pretty much bang-on with his summaries and analysis.

To quote, Steve blogged a while ago that when there is scandal, support for the government goes down. But when everything is normal on the Hill (defining normal as the shenanigans and partisanship that have become acceptable for parliament) popular opinion swings to to support the status quo (ie. the Conservatives).

As a progressive, this is outraging. Because I have a memory and principles. Both of which can be (admittedly) flexible at times, but never absent from my engagement with politics.

Today, EKOS tells Steve V's tale. Government support is up. Well, that's not entirely true. Harper has managed to pad his base. The Liberals have not. Their "horse race" support has either gone back to the NDP or have decided that things are not as bad as they seem and are content with the government. This poll isn't as frightening as the one Ipsos put out the other day, but it nonetheless keeps progressives frustrated.

The Globe and Mail is saying that the poll shows a post-Ford election, anti-elite "euphoria" in the GTA and other parts of the country that have recently conducted municipal elections. If this is true, my question is: am I still safe at Starbucks?

Jokes aside, we all saw the damage Rob Ford did to the Toronto civic election. He brought Tea Party politics to Canada and in a big way. The "left" was split and that's all it took folks. I imagine we'd see Christine O'Donnell in the House of Commons if she was Canadian. Why? Because we have a "united" band of right wingers who are ready to say, do, and promote anyone that will stand the chance of winning a seat. Imagine if you had O'Donnell facing off against two Democrats. One liberal and one liberaler. O'Donnell wins that state.

Who would O'Donnell be facing if she was in Canada? An incumbent Liberal who has probably been in the House for 15 years; a sensible New Democrat with an MA; and an environmental engineer running for the Green party. And maybe an independent who works out of their home selling knives. What's a voter to do when they think they're getting screwed? When they don't understand the workings of government? When the implications of our actions abroad are seemingly unimportant to their daily lives? They vote for the candidate who tells them what they want to hear: Stop the Gravy Train.

Lest the voter forgets (or remembers?) that said Tea Partier thinks masturbation is wrong. Or that homosexuality is an identity disorder. Or openly states that the Western world is at the edge of Armageddon with Islam. Or any of the other crap that comes from the pick-and-choose libertarian, anti-establishment, religiously fundamental republican playbook. I'll give credit where credit is due: this brand of politics has a way of articulating to people what they want to hear. They can narrate the lives of just enough voters to make a split-vote deadly.

Should Pantalone have left the race? Maybe. At first, I thought it was a good thing he was in it all the way. It stopped the Toronto mayoral race from looking like an American primary. It was a display of democracy. And I can't hate on that. Was it wise to stay? Probably not. It was principled, but not wise. And now here we are.

Think long and hard Layton. Think long and hard Ignatieff. If Harper is going to bark day and night about the Coalition - why not go for it? If the chances of forming a government live between "barely possible" and "no chance in hell" then maybe the two parties should sit down together and put together a list of 5 objectives that they are going to get done in this parliamentary session and DO THEM. They got the votes to keep the gun registry. They had the votes to pass C-300 and blew it. It can be done. So why not do it? You make up the majority in parliament! I'm not saying give up on winning an election, but while we're in this painful minority why not pass a few bills that would get progressives excited about voting for you? Now there's idea I could vote for.