Stuff Blogging Dippers aren't about to copy and paste...

Two weeks ago all you would read from the Dipper contingency on Pro Blogs was the democratic superiority of Jack Layton and imminent collapse of the Liberal Party (at least morally). Today, EKOS debunks this punditry with their latest round of nation-wide polling.

The electorate is 'mildly polarizing.' Canadians are squeezing out Jack Layton’s New Democrats as the gap widens between his party and the two front-running parties, according to a new EKOS poll.

The latest survey, released Thursday morning, supports what other recent polls have shown – a worrisome decline for the NDP, which faces the possibility of slipping behind the Green Party.

The NDP is now at 13.5 per cent support compared to the 16.6 per cent support they enjoyed in the EKOS poll two weeks ago. Mr. Layton’s position on the long-gun registry – in which he refused to demand his MPs support it – may, in part, explain the decline.

Elizabeth May and her Greens, meanwhile, are within spitting distance of the NDP with 10.9 per cent, up slightly from the 10.7 per cent support they polled two weeks ago.

And the poll also shows that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have a huge lead over the NDP and Greens, polling at 33.1 per cent for the Tories compared to 29.9 per cent for the Grits. Both parties experienced slight gains from the last EKOS poll (32.4 per cent compared to 28.9 per cen two weeks agot), apparently at the expense of the NDP.

“The NDP and [Green Party] both seem to be being squeezed as the electorate is mildly polarizing with the front runners,” pollster Frank Graves says. “I don’t think [the electorate] has written off the NDP; it’s too soon to say that.”

However, Mr. Graves says if the New Democrats slip further the Greens could inherit the third party role. “As time goes on, their core issue and appeal to a younger constituency may tilt things in favour of the Greens.”

The pollster cautions, however, that these are still early days and the landscape could easily change. “I think the defecting NDP vote were highly-educated who have gone Liberal over concerns about guns, census, and related issues. The Liberals may be seem as a better bet to depose Harper. This may also explain downward drift of [the Green Party].”

The latest poll also shows a recent surge in support for the Tories in Quebec has come to a screeching halt.

Two weeks ago, Mr. Graves credited the Prime Minister’s musings about putting money into a new hockey arena in Quebec City for pumping up his party’s fortunes (the Tories enjoyed 21.1 per cent support in Quebec at that time).

But how quickly things change. Conservatives are now polling at 14.7 per cent in Quebec compared to 23.5 per cent for the Liberals, 40.1 per cent for the Bloc and 10 per cent for the NDP.

“It is plausible to speculate that their steep fall in Quebec may be linked to the gun registry debate,” Mr. Graves says. “Or perhaps the disappointment of seeing dreams of NHL franchises dashed so quickly.”

Meanwhile, it’s game-on in Ontario. The Conservatives and Liberals are in an extremely tight race in the vote rich province, with 36.7 per cent support for the Tories compared to 35.8 per cent for the Liberals.

The poll of 2,267 Canadians was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 28. It has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Shooting himself in the foot: Stephen Harper not only lost his fight to kill the long-gun registry, it now appears the registry could cost him 20 seats and his dream of a majority government, according to new seat projections based on the EKOS poll released Thursday morning.

“The gun registry battle has not set the table for an ingenious stealth majority,” pollster Frank Graves says.

“Whatever possible gains that might occur in rural opposition areas would be woefully inadequate to get the CPC the 30-plus seats they would need under these numbers to secure a majority – and this is without even considering the possibility of losses in urban conservative seats now held by narrow margins.”

Mr. Graves’ seat projections give the Tories 123 seats, down sharply from the 143 they currently hold in the Commons. Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals would earn 26 more seats, up to 102 from the 76 they have now. The NDP, which only has 36 seats now, would see their representation in the House decline to 28. The Bloc would see its fortunes increase to 54 seats from 48 in Quebec, and there would be one independent MP.

“In fact, the clear conclusion is that the Conservatives have steered away from the brink of majority at the last election,” Mr. Graves says. “The current voter intention numbers would now place them numerically closer to the opposition than majority.”

Yikes! You know, it's not that I hate the band - it's the fans I have some trouble with. During the Dion Era, I blogged how Liberals would march behind their leader, no matter who he/she was and where they took the party. And while this is true to a certain extent of all political parties, the New Democratic Party of Canada was a strange animal these last two weeks.

First, they defended anti-registry MPs vehemently through with the "private member's bill" argument.

When pressed, there wasn't a single Blogging Dipper that would admit that letting the registry die was good politics for NDP rural seats. Quite simply, the registry was become collateral damage in their quest to form the Government-in-Waiting.

But, low and behold, their glorious leader Jack Layton flew in and saved the day by talking with his MPs and noticed that, hey, Stephen Harper was insulting them and their rural constituents! The registry is one kind of evil... but the Conservative government's approach to the registry is a greater threat to rural Canada.

At each step Jack and the NDP took in wading through the mess that became Hoeppner's quest to kill the long-gun registry, Blogging Dippers thunderously applauded while taking any chance they could to smear Ignatieff for whipping his caucus. There was no higher ground, no path too narrow, than the one taken by Jack.

And today, Canadians showed them their appreciation. Thanks.

If the long-gun registry is a waste of money...

... then what words are CPC MP's using to describe the 1.2 billion dollar G8/20 Summits?

John Baird described the summits as "unprecedented" and that he is "proud" of them. Vic Toews echoed Baird saying that, "As host nation of unprecedented back-to-back G8 and G20 summits, we are proud of their success. As we have said all along, the majority of the costs for the summits were security-related.” Eventually, Rona flew into the discussion on her broom to add to the defense of the security costs.

And with that, I officially give up! The rationale of the 'fiscal conservative' is mind boggling in this country, and especially in Parliament.

Let me get this straight: the safety of police officers in Toronto for four days justifies $1.2 billion dollars, but the safety created by $4 million dollar/year long-gun registry is a "waste" of public spending? And concerning social policy, it's even more ridiculous. If the long-gun registry, by it's very existence, makes all duck hunters criminals; then what did the G8/20 security make the citizens of Muskoka and Toronto? Serial Killers?

For all the pundits out there that believe Harper is going to win the next election on his fiscal record and that the recent registry is just another victory notch in his pre-elections strategy belt; give your head a shake! At least, that's what I'm doing. Because I do not believe the public, after all that has gone on past 2008, are going to give this guy a majority due to anti-registry rhetoric and coalition fear-mongering all the while the economy is sputtering and he has not been able to keep his hand out of the public purse since he opened up the doors of 24 Sussex!

To quote Mugatu: I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

The battle was won

But the War is not over. Harper's War on Information will rage throughout this next parliamentary session and set the stage for the final fight (a clash, some might say) in the next election.

Today's 153-151 vote was not only crucial for progressives all across Canada, but for our law enforcement officers. Today, the data needed for these men and women to do their jobs safely was saved. On a political level, this was a huge win for the Liberal party - Ignatieff especially. They've got to be going home tonight feeling confidant in themselves. They met Harper head-on. They did not betray their principles when they threw down. And you know what? They won.

In short: today's vote was a big deal for the Liberals as they prepare for a volatile session in the HoC. And good on the 6 NDP MPs who sided with the Liberals and the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police to keep this life-saving information at arms length of our law enforcement.

You know, the last vote I can think of that had this much riding on it (both in terms of party moral and social direction of the country) was Paul Martin's bill C-38 - an amendment to Canada's Marriage Act to recognize same-sex marriages, in 2005. That vote was decided 158-133 with 15 abstentions, which doesn't sound so dramatic unless you recall that the bill needed 154 votes to pass.

All in all, today has been a great day for progressives in the Canadian House of Commons!

Talking points and Base Issues

A couple of thoughts just moments from Candice Hoeppner's (not so) private member's bill goes (hopefully) down in flames.

Concerning the CPC and former-NDP talking points: since when has the act of "registration" been equated with a declaration of criminal activity?

Manitoba Tory (Hoeppner) came out swinging against the oppositionp arties on Wednesday, calling the behavior of NDP MPs on the issue "bizzare" and saying the Liberals are content to criminalize "law-abiding citizens" who own guns.

I wonder if Hoeppner feels the same way about car registration? Or pee-week hockey registration? Or voter registration?

Anyone willing to learn about the facts and the sides of this debate will know: the Liberals are in favour of eliminating heavy fines and jail-terms for those who refuse to register their long-gun. They said that in April, they repeated in August, and they're saying it now. To characterize the Liberal position as "criminalizing" gun owners is being willfully ignorant to the LPC stance on the issue for the sake of scoring political points with the most uninformed of society.

Concerning base-issues and elections: do the Liberals already know the CPC strategy?

The Tories are warning opposition MPs the issue will be front and centre in the next election. Hoeppner says politicians who pledged to end the program — and then changed their minds — have lost the trust of their constituents. “Any time that we run for office, credibility is an issue,” she said Wednesday.

Is the gun-registry really going to be at the forefront of the Conservative platform? If we take Hoeppner and Harper at face value, then this could be an election issue. Maybe not a platform defining issue, but one that is certain to come up in key ridings. Perhaps all those "free vote" Dippers should pick up a pen and jot this down: scrapping the long-gun registry is a pillar of the Reform/CA/CPC philosophy.

One thing is for certain: this vote will define the strength of the Opposition. I've never been one to call for a party leader to have an iron grip on their MPs, but I really hope Ignatieff has all the votes locked down. The NDP sound very confidant and the Bloc, well, they've been in support of the registry since day-one.

And with that: let the voting begin!

I agree with Ed

Ed Broadbent summed it up best when describing the state of Question Period in Canadian politics today:

THE PROBLEM – The real problem with the relevance of the House of Commons is that most Canadians don’t see themselves reflected there. Mr. Harper’s party obtained hundreds of thousands of votes in our three largest cities: Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. He has not a single seat in the House of Commons from the cities. Where is the voice of urban Canada in the heart of the government? The Green Party got almost a million votes, no seat whatsoever. So do those Canadians who voted that way see themselves?

THE SOLUTION – If you look at the experience in continental Europe, the parties do co-operate more, there is more civility, because they know that there is not going to be something called a majority government, nor is there likely to be in the rest of this century. They know they are going to have to collaborate more, negotiations aren’t a bad thing, and after elections they sometimes take weeks to put together a government. But there are either coalitions or signed agreements and people get more civility and more stability.

The other three former MPs interviewed by the Globe and Mail agreed that the Speaker has to get a whole lot tougher on MPs who try to score points rather than ask questions. Former Liberal John Godfry blamed the government for letting things get out of hand; and former Conservative Jay Hill placed part of his blame on the media.

Meanwhile, John Baird is singing the "Elitist" chorus of the CPC's anthem while at the same time telling Canadians that the Harper government is fixing their attention on the economy - not an election. I'll believe that when I see it. Because as we all know, Harper is using the economy to set the stage for an election. The economic in-action plan has as much to do with stimulating the electorate's interest in Harper as it does the economy.

Lastly, another Dipper comes to their senses and does the right thing: supports the existence long-gun registry. Apparently they have the votes. I'll also believe that when I see it.

Heads to roll in Saskatchewan

What a disgraceful performance this afternoon at CanadInns Stadium in Winnipeg by the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Disgusting. Pathetic.

I was there. I paid my money. I showed up and wore green. And all the points the Roughriders could muster up for their fans was a big, fat, goose egg. That's right: 0. As in, NONE. Two safety's were the only points the Blue Bombers gave to the Riders.

Where to start?

Dominique Dorsey.

What the hell! This man's only job, his ONLY duty on the team, is to catch the football on a punt or kick off. Running some distance after the catch is always nice, but before that can happen you have to actually secure possession of the ball. Weston Dressler can do it. Stu Foord can do it. Hell, even JASON ARMSTEAD can do it! Dorsey, for whatever reason, seems inept in this position. He's the first person who should be handed a pink slip on Tuesday morning.

Doug Berry.

For a guy who cannot figure out the defensive schemes of his former team I bet he has no problem concocting ways to spend his pay cheque every week. To sum up Berry's calls: they're unimaginative. No clever tricks. No special plays. No "when the shit hits the fan and we've gotta pick it up" creativity. Nothing. Of course, it doesn't help when your O-Line is useless. Well, not useless, but completely SOFT against an opposing defense.

I'll give credit where credit is due, the Bombers played one hell of a game today. You know, they played one hell of a game last week too. They were due for a win.

You know, I remember the Roughriders' third win of the season like it was yesterday. Well, it wasn't yesterday but that's how it feels to recall the third week of the 2010 CFL season. So savor this win, obnoxious Bomber fans, cause the Blue and Gold are on a course for a 6 and 12 year. But no matter, reality will set in for the Bombers and their brand of "sophisticated" fans (unlike the "hicks" and "rednecks" from Saskatchewan - says the 1970's mustached, mullet donning, Labatt Blue double fisting father of three from North of Portage) travel to Toronto and then host Montreal.

As for the Riders; God help them. The next four games are played at home against Calgary, away at Hamilton, and then a back-to-back against Toronto. To go 3 and 1 in those games is a best case scenario after the way this team has played the last four games. And by "best case" I mean it is the record they'll probably have if they are firing on all cylinders.

Calgary is a must win. Hands down. And if it isn't a victory, they have to slaughter the Ti-Cats and put up real attempts against the Arogs to get some swag back. Cause after that they're looking at Calgary (home), Edmonton (away), BC (away), and finally Edmonton (home).

Is a 10 and 8 season possible? I hope, nay, I pray that it is. Four more wins. Can we eek those out? Can we possibly win FIVE more games? Our last three we have to go 2 and 1. We have to beat Toronto and Calgary once. Ideally, we'd take the season series against the Stamps, but that's looking to be unlikely (much to the shagrin of my friends from Alberta's real capital).

It's hard to type these last words I always end my usual Rider rants with. But if I can suffer today's loss, if I can sleep in my jersey after the Grey Cup debacle, then I can walk around this ridiculous town and say that I'm a Rider fan. And if I am feeling particularly depressed, I'll always remember better days.

GO! RIDERS! GO!

I'm not happy with the Roughriders

Ah, Labour Day. When times were tough for the Green and White, we'd use to say, "If we're only going to win one game this year, it better be against the Blue Bombers on Labour Day!" Well, we won yesterday. Barely. And the worst part of it all, it actually looked like they were trying to win.

It is not as if the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a bad team. They've had some bad luck. Some bad management. But I believe their coach Paul LaPolice is one of the best. If only there were a few more good bounces coming Winnipeg's way, the Bombers could be 6 and 3.

I've said it on other blogs and I'll say it officially now: something has to be done with the Saskatchewan play-calling. I was never a fan of Doug Berry when he was part of the Bomber squad and I'm not a fan of him now. If the Riders cannot sustain drives then, especially given their talent on paper, then I'm going to have to pin some of the blame on the offensive coordinator for not being able to access the opponent's D and exploit their weaknesses. Last year, with LaPolice at the helm, the offence was able to make incredible changes for the second half of games.

Yesterday, the Rider D made big plays when they needed to. Same with last week against Edmonton. And yet, the Special Teams play continues to be atrocious. Dorsey's fumble in the third was nearly the dagger for his team if it were not for Durant's fourth quarter heroics.

I would ideally like to see more production from Dressler and Cates as I think both of them are being underutilized. Cates only had 7 touches yesterday for a total of 15 yards. When Dorsey came back to Sask, I thought for sure the Riders would use both of them in the backfield every now and then. But, alas, we've seen very little of that. It is almost like there is too much talent on the Roughrider roster. A problem that is shared by Calgary, and yet, they somehow manage to blow out games and sit atop the CFL at 7-1.

The first half of the season was okay. There were some games we probably should have lost (our first to Edmonton) and some that we could have won (our second against Montreal). In between were moments of pure frustration and utter elation. Cates is poised to run 1200 yards and at least 15 TDs while Durant's TD/INT ratio is only getting worse. The ball will continue to be spread around between the Canadian Air Force and our star imports Dressler and Rodriguez, and the Special Teams play will most likely continue to be abysmal barring our blocking gets hit by inspirational lightening.

I hate to say it, but the Riders probably won't end the season at 12 and 6 or better. I'm predicting a 10 and 8 record to end the season with a Western semi-final win against Edmonton in Regina. Nine games ago I would have said that the Riders are poised to go back to the Grey Cup, but I think Calgary will represent the West this year and take it. Of course, that won't happen if Sask wins the next two games against Calgary. In that case, I might be so bold as to wager that the Riders will eek their way back to the Cup (since Henry Burris cannot beat the Green and White in the playoffs) with a regular season record of 11 and 7.

But I hope I'm wrong. I hope they go 13 and 5 and clean up in the playoffs. If Durant and his O-Line get a little sharper, if our receivers manage to get one more step on their opponents, and the D continues to be aggressive - we can do it.

GO! RIDERS! GO