Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Corking popped CPC Champagne: EKOS reports reality

A week ago CPC drones were celebrating tantalizing poll numbers that put the Harper Party close to majority territory. Today, EKOS reports what I believe to be the reality on the ground.

How does one party go from a 13 point lead to just under 5? Was it the shameful display of Bev Oda and a crumbling moral authority to govern? Or was it, as Frank Graves ponders, a kick-back in soft-support for the current government as they reached terrifying majority-like numbers?

While we do not have the regional results of the Feb. 10-22 poll where over 2800 Canadians were questioned, the thesis that the Harper Party has been "Oda-sized" seems to be the best fit for the dip. It is worth noting that this latest news from EKOS has more than 1,150 more responses and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 compared to their pre-Oda poll earlier this month. (Imagine that, the more Canadians you talk to the more come out in support of the Opposition parties.) All things considered, progressives can breathe easy as it has become normal to see Harper around 33%-32% to the LPC 28%-27%.

Graves hits on a number of other issues while on Power and Politics. Every time that Harper reaches majority territory there is a recoil effect; and second, every time there is some sort of stability in the government and things are going swimmingly for the Harper Party, they end up committing a massive public faux pas.

Which is good for us and bad for them. Leaving the only one question left: what's the best way to cork popped CPC champagne?

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